NBAHOUSE

Public record

Model track record

Every model pick since 20 Oct 2026, graded against the official box score. Wins and losses, nothing removed. Pushes and players who did not play are not counted.

406–242
Record
62.7%
Win rate · 52.4% breaks even
+127.1u
Units at −110
+19.6%
ROI

Units over time

1 unit per pick at −110
0 Tue 20 Oct Wed 28 Oct

By confidence

What the tiers mean
Strong
77–24
76.2%
+46.0u
Solid
157–68
69.8%
+74.7u
Lean
172–150
53.4%
+6.4u

By stat and side

Points
68–28
70.8%
+33.8u
Rebounds
171–110
60.9%
+45.5u
Assists
167–104
61.6%
+47.8u
Over
61–21
74.4%
+34.5u
Under
345–221
61.0%
+92.6u

Is the confidence honest?

648 graded picks
40% 40% 50% 50% 60% 60% 70% 70% 80% 80% 90% 90% breaks even at −110 Under 50%: 23–37, won 38.3% 50–55%: 34–39, won 46.6% 55–60%: 43–22, won 66.2% 60–65%: 34–27, won 55.7% 65–70%: 79–42, won 65.3% 70–75%: 58–27, won 68.2% 75–80%: 48–11, won 81.4% 80% or more: 87–37, won 70.2% Chance the model gave the pick

The model is overconfident: its picks win less often than the chance it gives them (by 5.0 points on average).

Model saysPicksWon
Under 50%6038.3%
50–55%7346.6%
55–60%6566.2%
60–65%6155.7%
65–70%12165.3%
70–75%8568.2%
75–80%5981.4%
80% or more12470.2%

The chance comes from how far the projection sits from the line, against how much that stat usually moves. Dots on the dashed diagonal mean the model's confidence is honest; bigger dots have more picks.

By month

MonthWLPWin %Units
October 20264062420 62.7%+127.1

Latest graded picks

DatePlayerPickConfidenceFinalResult
Wed 28 Oct P.J. Washington Jr. Under 6.5 rebounds Lean 9 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Derrick Jones Jr. Under 1.5 assists Lean 0 Win
Wed 28 Oct Cade Cunningham Under 5.5 rebounds Lean 5 Win
Wed 28 Oct Ayo Dosunmu Under 4.5 rebounds Solid 3 Win
Wed 28 Oct Christian Braun Under 12.5 points Solid 15 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Peyton Watson Over 4.5 rebounds Lean 6 Win
Wed 28 Oct Tyler Herro Under 4.5 assists Lean 0 Win
Wed 28 Oct Duncan Robinson Under 13.5 points Lean 13 Win
Wed 28 Oct Andrew Wiggins Under 3.5 rebounds Lean 2 Win
Wed 28 Oct Jase Richardson Under 7.5 points Solid 10 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Anthony Black Under 14.5 points Solid 8 Win
Wed 28 Oct Devin Vassell Under 2.5 assists Lean 2 Win
Wed 28 Oct Kris Dunn Over 4.5 assists Solid 3 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Anthony Davis Over 2.5 assists Lean 3 Win
Wed 28 Oct Walker Kessler Under 13.5 points Lean 11 Win
Wed 28 Oct Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 30.5 points Lean 24 Win
Wed 28 Oct OG Anunoby Under 1.5 assists Solid 1 Win
Wed 28 Oct Norman Powell Under 2.5 rebounds Lean 2 Win
Wed 28 Oct Jaden McDaniels Under 2.5 assists Lean 4 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Jakob Poeltl Under 1.5 assists Solid 0 Win
Wed 28 Oct Jaxson Hayes Under 1.5 assists Lean 4 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Rudy Gobert Under 1.5 assists Lean 1 Win
Wed 28 Oct Anthony Davis Under 10.5 rebounds Lean 5 Win
Wed 28 Oct Christian Braun Under 4.5 rebounds Lean 0 Win
Wed 28 Oct Ja'Kobe Walter Under 1.5 assists Lean 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Dejounte Murray Over 6.5 assists Lean 5 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Aaron Gordon Under 2.5 assists Lean 3 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Josh Hart Under 4.5 assists Lean 3 Win
Wed 28 Oct Jonathan Kuminga Under 5.5 rebounds Lean 3 Win
Wed 28 Oct Walker Kessler Under 10.5 rebounds Lean 9 Win
Wed 28 Oct Jalen Smith Over 1.5 assists Lean 5 Win
Wed 28 Oct Moussa Diabate Under 1.5 assists Lean 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Mikal Bridges Under 3.5 rebounds Solid 0 Win
Wed 28 Oct Austin Reaves Under 26.5 points Lean 16 Win
Wed 28 Oct Davion Mitchell Under 2.5 rebounds Solid 1 Win
Wed 28 Oct DeAndre Jordan Under 6.5 rebounds Solid 4 Win
Wed 28 Oct Darius Garland Under 7.5 assists Solid 5 Win
Wed 28 Oct Wendell Carter Jr. Under 2.5 assists Solid 3 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Karl-Anthony Towns Over 3.5 assists Solid 5 Win
Wed 28 Oct Max Christie Under 1.5 assists Lean 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct CJ McCollum Over 2.5 rebounds Strong 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Joel Embiid Over 3.5 assists Strong 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Andrew Nembhard Under 2.5 rebounds Lean 3 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Scottie Barnes Under 5.5 assists Lean 4 Win
Wed 28 Oct LaMelo Ball Under 21.5 points Solid 8 Win
Wed 28 Oct Norman Powell Under 1.5 assists Solid 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Jabari Smith Jr. Under 1.5 assists Lean 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Dyson Daniels Under 6.5 rebounds Lean 4 Win
Wed 28 Oct Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 assists Solid 7 Win
Wed 28 Oct Ayo Dosunmu Under 4.5 assists Solid 4 Win
Wed 28 Oct Sion James Under 2.5 assists Lean 3 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Ace Bailey Over 5.5 rebounds Lean 6 Win
Wed 28 Oct John Collins Under 6.5 rebounds Lean 2 Win
Wed 28 Oct Nikola Jokic Under 12.5 rebounds Lean 13 Loss
Wed 28 Oct P.J. Washington Jr. Under 1.5 assists Lean 0 Win
Wed 28 Oct Mikal Bridges Under 2.5 assists Lean 0 Win
Wed 28 Oct Myles Turner Under 1.5 assists Lean 2 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Isaiah Hartenstein Under 3.5 assists Solid 3 Win
Wed 28 Oct Nikola Jokic Under 9.5 assists Lean 10 Loss
Wed 28 Oct Dennis Schroder Under 5.5 assists Solid 5 Win